New Brown poll puts Caprio, Cicilline on top

Update #2: Here’s my analysis of why the four polls done over the last three weeks wound up with such divergent results.

Brown University’s Taubman Center just released a new poll of 565 registered voters in Rhode Island. Survey conducted Sept. 27-29; MoE plus or minus 4.1 percent. Here are some headlines:

  • Caprio: 30%
  • Chafee: 23%
  • Robitaille: 14%
  • Block: 2%
  • undecided: 30%

First impression – that’s an astonishingly high number of undecided voters, and this poll’s results are closer to the infamous Profughi survey than ours or Rasmussen’s. This shows Caprio pulling away from Chafee compared with Brown’s last poll in August, which had Caprio at 28% and Chafee at 27%, a statistical tie.

Update #1: I just got off the phone with Joe Fleming, our Eyewitness News political analyst. He’s too much of a gentleman to critique his fellow pollsters’ work, but overall he said his take on the state of the campaign has not changed since last week. “I still think the governor’s race is too close to call,” he said. Brown is “showing a 7-point margin, but they’re also showing 30% undecided, which makes it really difficult to say what’s happening.”

In the 1st Congressional District, Brown polled 289 respondents, giving this part of the survey a margin of error of plus or minus 6%. Results:

  • Cicilline: 39%
  • Loughlin: 21%
  • Raposa: 6%
  • undecided: 31%

Other races:

  • Lieutenant Governor: Roberts 36%, Healey 23%, Venturini 7%, undecided 34%
  • Secretary of State: Mollis 39%, Taylor 28%, undecided 33%
  • AG: Kilmartin 26%, Wallin 14%, McKenna 10%, Little 7%, Rainville 2%, undecided 41%
  • Treasurer: Raimondo 38%, King 20%, undecided 42%

In the 2nd Congressional District, Brown polled 276 voters, so there’s an MoE of plus or minus 6.1%. They have Langevin at 47%, Zaccaria at 13%, and undecideds at 34%.

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