After reading this story by Dan McGowan and yours truly about why the Rhode Island Senate shifted on same-sex marriage, Bloomberg View’s Josh Barro sees a lesson for proponents in other states (my emphasis):
This is similar to what happened in New York in 2011: passing gay marriage depended not only on four Republican state senators voting yes but also on Dean Skelos, the Senate’s Republican presiding officer, agreeing to let gay marriage come to the floor even though he opposed it. Rhode Island and New York are both examples of the “no fingerprints” strategy for gay-marriage opponents: letting it become law while taking as little credit or blame as possible.
If the Supreme Court doesn’t intervene, this will be a key political theme over the next 20 years: gay marriage opponents strategically acquiescing so they can stop fighting a fight they know is doomed and electorally costly. Rhode Island’s topsy-turvy politics mean that the officials making that calculation today are Democrats (all five Republicans in Rhode Island’s state Senate support marriage equality), but in most states, it will be Republicans who search for ways to lose gracefully on the issue.