Evening Update: Showers Moving In, Maybe a T-Storm

As of around 6PM, showers were already moving into northwest Rhode Island.  There is a good chance that a few showers will continue to move through our viewing area, but the thunderstorms may or may not survive the trip in from the west.

Here is a snapshot of 6PM from the high resolution RPM model.

DG_Go_Blog_Now

Generally, the stronger showers and thunderstorms are represented by the yellow and orange colors, while the “plain” rain showers are represented by the green colors.  In other words, this particular computer model forecasts just a few rain showers passing through.

So why are we saying a slight CHANCE of a strong thunderstorm this evening?

While the RPM model above doesn’t think much of our thunderstorm chances, it is not the only model we look at.  Below is a look at the high resolution rapid refresh model (courtesy Weatherbell.com)

HRRR_Blog

Notice how the yellow colors around 7PM at least hint at some thunderstorms and downpours.  In addition, some of our other computer models show that conditions for strong thunderstorms are favorable in western Connecticut and Massachusetts, and borderline for our viewing area.  While the chance of severe weather is low, it is high enough to give you heads up about this threat.

 So with all of the above information, how do you break down the forecast?

Between 6 and 10PM tonight….

It is very likely that: while a decent amount of the evening is dry, few showers and sprinkles passing through.

It is possible that: one or 2 brief thunderstorms pass through. Even in brief, non-severe thunderstorms, lightning is always a danger.

There is a slight chance that: a severe thunderstorm moves through.  Damaging winds, lightning, and torrential downpours would be the primary threats.

What is the bottom line?

If you have outdoor plans this evening, make sure you keep on eye to the sky and better yet, take the Pinpoint Weather App with you on your mobile device.  You can download our app right here!

If you get an alert or see a thunderstorm approaching on the interactive RADAR, then you know it’s time to head indoors.

-Pete Mangione

 

Comments are closed.