More Significant Snow Possible Sunday into Monday

After a a quick 1 to 3″ last night, we have another potential significant snow-maker on the way Sunday into Monday.

Today, there may be some icy spots due to the combination of fog, mist, and sub-freezing temperatures for at least the early part of the afternoon.

There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the forecast because there will likely be some mixing to sleet and rain, but the question is how much mixing and where?   There is a potential of over 6″ of snow for most of our area, that’s why the National Weather Service has issues a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday into Monday:

wstormwatch

Before the storm, there is a chance of some freezing drizzle late tonight into early Sunday morning.  Use caution, icy roads are possible; often freezing rain and drizzle is more dangerous than snow because it’s hard to see.

Sunday afternoon, snow will likely overspread the area.  Deeper into the afternoon and night, some mixing to rain or sleet is likely, especially from Providence down to the south coast.  North and west of 295, it could stay as mostly snow.  However, we just don’t know exactly where this mixing line will set up.

petegraphicuncertain

On Monday, all of our area goes to all snow IF there is enough moisture around.  It’s possible that by the time the cold air rushes in on the back side of the storm, that the storm is just a little to far to the north and east to give us much accumulation.  That being said, there is a potential of a rough Monday morning commute with strong wind gusts (35 to 45 mph) and heavy snow.  Stay tuned, we should know a lot more about the Monday morning commute over the next 24 hours.

Here is what I am thinking for total accumulations by Monday afternoon.  I have a VERY wide range for northern Rhode Island and northern Bristol County Massachusetts because of the uncertainty in the amount of mixing we will get.

tweetsnow

The recent run of the high resolution RPM model seems to be in line with this thinking, although this is only going out to Monday morning and there could be some additional snow bands in the afternoon:

rpm-4km-sne-snowfall-accumulation-blog

Please do not let this be the last forecast you see, it will likely change!

-Pete Mangione

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