Storm Track Shifting West=Precip Type Issues

NEW ACCUMULATION FORECAST

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Good Morning,

A major winter storm is still likely in Southern New England, complete with intense snow, strong winds and significant travel impacts.  That said, our forecast has changed slightly based on new data in overnight.

OLD ACCUM MAP
NEW ACCUMULATION FORECAST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are still questions about the EXACT track of the storm.  And new overnight, our computer models have started to trend more west with the storm track… perhaps over Cape Cod.  That westward shift, if it does pan out, would likely bring a surge of warmer air into Southern New England and could mean that areas south of Providence see the snow mix with or change to sleet and rain during the mid/late afternoon Tuesday.

Here’s the new European model storm track (left) versus the 00z GFS model storm track (right).

 

The European model brings the Rain/Snow line as far north as I-95, meaning Providence and points south see some mixing, while areas north and west of Providence stay all snow.

Here’s a look at that rain/snow line lifting north on the RPM Model:

The timing of the storm remains unchanged… the first flakes of snow are expected between 4am and 8am, with the heaviest precipitation from late morning through the afternoon.  Snow/mix ends by late evening for most and by midnight for all.

 

Regardless of where that rain/snow line ends up, travel will be dangerous, if not nearly impossible after 9am Tuesday through the afternoon and evening.

 

 

We are still concerned about potential power outages in this storm due to the combination of heavy, wet snow and strong winds.

 

Please check back in today for continued updates on this storm.

 

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