Light Snow Possible Late Tonight into Sunday

UPDATE: We are now expecting a coating to 2″ of snow, mainly on grassy surfaces.  The most snow would fall over SE MA and on the Cape. The Winter Storm Watch for the Cape has been cancelled

The latest info can be found here


 

We’re going to be honest…confidence is not high that we’ll see any accumulating snow tonight and Sunday, but the potential still exists.  In addition, the potential still exists for enough snow over parts of Southeastern Massachusetts that power outages are possible.  The forecast path of the weather system we’ve been tracking has changed, and this could lead to less accumulation than originally expected.

Here’s what we do know right now….

It’ll be quiet today, but a weather system moving through the Midwest will approach New England, sending clouds our way.  You’ll notice the sunshine giving way to extra clouds through the day.

That weather system will advance eastward, forming a low off the NJ coast which will pass to our south and strengthen.  This is where the forecast uncertainty arrives.  How close will that low pass? Here’s the forecast position for that low from the GFS (American) model from Friday.

Now, here’s the forecast low position and track from this morning’s model run.

The low, according to the latest information is expected to be much father south, which leads to less accumulation expected for our area.  Other computer models (European included) have similar tracks.  It’s also entirely possible that we see very little if any accumulation.

Below is what potentially could fall Saturday night into Sunday morning…at this point, this looks like the worst case scenario.  In fact, even with this ‘worst case scenario’, most of the snow would accumulate on the grass, car tops and decks Sunday morning.

Now, say the storm does track a little closer…that 2-4″ over SE MA could become 4-6″ which would increase the likely of power outages there.  This snow will be a heavy wet snow, and it would collect on trees and power lines.  With some strong winds (to 45mph over SE MA), power outages would be possible with 4-6″ of snow.  These are the concerns that we look at with every storm — subtle changes which could have a big impact.

Due to this potential on the Cape, there is a Winter Storm Watch in effect, which means there is the POTENTIAL for 6″ there.  In addition, a High Wind Watch is in effect for the same area as gusts could reach 60mph on Sunday.  The National Weather Service, which issues watches/warnings, is also concerned about the possibility of higher amounts over the Cape because that could lead to power outages.

No watches, warnings or advisories are in place for Rhode Island or nearby Massachusetts.

The chance for snow starts after midnight and continues through Sunday morning for Rhode Island and nearby Massachusetts, lasting longer over the Cape/Islands.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

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