Easter Weekend: Seasonable Start, Warm Finish

Easter in New England can bring quite the wardrobe conundrum. Do you buy the sweet (though often sleeveless) spring dress for a little girl…. only to see it covered up by sweaters and winter coats.  Will her Easter bonnet block the sun or a cold driving rain? Will it snow? Will it feel like summer? Or will it be a gray, raw, early Spring New England day?

Often times it can depend on when Easter occurs from year to year.  Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon following the Vernal equinox.  That means Easter can fall any time between March 22 and April 25.  So this year Easter is on the late-side…. more inclined to spring warmth than winter chill.

In fact, Sunday looks warmer than normal.

If the deterministic European model is correct. we could be looking at another day near 80!

Right now, I’ve gone a little cooler with my Sunday forecast based on the one hiccup in the weekend—a weak storm center.

The timing and track of an area of low pressure will determine the shower threat.  Based on ensemble guidance, the low looks to move across northern New England on Sunday.

EPS Low pressure center Valid Sunday, April 16, 8pm

 

Ahead of the low, a warm front will move into southern New England bringing a batch of showers.  Overnight and early morning data points to most of those showers occurring Saturday night.

00z GFS Model Valid at 2am Sunday

 

 

The Sunday shower risk right now looks spotty, isolated, hit-or-miss. Most of the day may end up dry, warm and partly sunny.  However, a cold front will approach late day and will bring the risk of a passing shower/t’storm…. especially if we have the warm air and some sun to fuel atmospheric instability.

00z GFS model valid at 2am Monday

 

How does this compare to past Easters?

It was a cold dry Easter last year, with rain and a trace of snow the year before that.  Other notable recent Easter weather? We had back-to -back record warm days in 2010 and 2011.

         Year       Date       High      Low    Precipitation                Notes

  • 2016     3/27         49            29        Dry
  • 2015      4/5          53            29,       Rain: 0.13″, Snow: Trace
  • 2014      4/20        56            38        Dry
  • 2013      3/31        59            32        Rain: 0.31″
  • 2012      4/8          56            41        Dry
  • 2011      4/24        78*           50        Rain: 0.01″                *Record
  • 2010      4/4          76*           46        Dry                              *Record

 

While our temperatures this coming Sunday could rival highs from 2010, 2011, the record for April 16 is 88 from 2003.  Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll break that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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