Much Improved Saturday, Few Showers Possible

NOTE: As of early Friday afternoon, the temperature at TF Green is 65 degrees. If we stay below 69 for the rest of the day and night, we will set the record for the coldest high temperature on this date (July 14th).

After the cool and damp end to the week, many of us are hoping for a dry and sunny weekend. Well, I have mostly good news for you. Saturday will likely start with some clouds with possible showers. Some sun should be able to break through by the afternoon. I can’t completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon but most locations will likely stay dry.So why can’t we guarantee zero showers on Saturday? There are actually a couple of moving parts:
First, a front will be close enough Friday overnight into Saturday morning to nudge some humidity back into the area and also provide some lift to kick off a few potential showers.

By later Saturday morning into the afternoon, a center of low pressure and the associated front will move offshore.

This means that the main “trigger” for producing those showers will be gone. However, there may be enough instability in the afternoon to pop a brief shower or thunderstorm.

This is a look at the NAM model for Saturday at 5PM; the left bend in the red line shows that temperatures are decreasing with height enough so that there is decent instability in the atmosphere (although it’s not that impressive). Dew points (shown by the green line) in the upper 60s at the surface also show that there is a good dose of moisture at the surface.

Going in our favor to keep the showers away is the trend of the “trigger” to be gone by the afternoon. Therefore, the decent instability will likely not be enough to produce much in the way of showers in the afternoon.

Overall, Saturday looks muggy with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.  Showers are more likely in the morning than in the afternoon.

Sunday should be great with sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s! Have a good Friday! -Pete Mangione

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