How Many Loop-DE-loops will José Do?

Good morning,

It’s same old, same old for Hurricane José this morning.  It’s continuing to complete it’s loop around itself as a weak Category 1 hurricane.

The latest NHC track shows José eventually on the move by Friday and the weekend, moving northwest and then turning northeast and tracking between the Carolinas and Bermuda.

That’s typically a scenario that gives a storm a safe escape out to sea…. however, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with José’s track in the middle and end of next week.

From our “spaghetti plot” above, you can see that the majority of the ensemble members have the storm track off-shore…. but closer inspection shows the potential for Irma to get “hung up” in the waters southeast of New England during the mid/late part of next week…. perhaps doing another loop around itself??

Both the GFS and European models showed this uncertainty in their deterministic models overnight…. with the GFS track closer to the US coast early in the week.  Both models show the José still in the western Atlantic late next work week!

It’s still too early to say if José will hang around for another 7-10 days, but it is not a storm we can write-off.

At a minimum, our area is likely to see some impact in our local waters with an elevated risk for rip currents and rough surf at our ocean exposed beaches. While there’s a moderate risk for rip currents today, the risk will likely increase by Sunday and early next week.

Please stay tuned for updates.

 

 

Comments are closed.