Tracking Jose: Update and Storm Impacts

Let’s talk impacts with Jose.  This is a multi-faceted storm with many impacts on Southern New England.  While it does not look like we will see a direct hit from Jose, we could see damaging wind gusts, flooding rains and a small storm surge.  Through this blog post, I’ll answer some Twitter questions which may be of interest to everyone.  But first, here is the 11PM forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.

Wind

As Jose moves northwards and weakens, the wind field will be expanding, meaning we will see the reach of the strong winds grow larger.  Winds in excess of 39mph (tropical storm force) could begin late Tuesday and continue through most of the day on Wednesday.

Here is one computer model’s idea of the wind gusts…50-60mph at the south coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts with inland gusts of 30-40mph.

 

Michael, these winds are strong enough to take down trees and scattered power outages are possible. Our power outage potential map shows an increased risk of power outages Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, especially for coastal areas.

 

THIS is the time to prepare for a power outage.  If you have a generator, get extra gas, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to gas the car up, too.  Check the batteries in flashlights.  Before the storm, make sure all electronic devices are charged up.

The winds will be out of the east, northeast and north with this storm, so it will be like a strong Nor’easter to us here in New England.

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RAIN

Jose will bring periods of heavy rain to Southern New England, and they will be coming in bands.  So, there could be many hours of no rain, then tremendous rains arrive. In general, 2-4″ of rain is possible in Rhode Island and nearby Massachusetts; although higher amounts are possible, especially over the Cape and Islands.

 

Nancy, heavy rain bands and strengthening winds could make it difficult to fly back late Tuesday.  In addition, ferry service will likely be stopped by late Tuesday (Nantucket, Vineyard and Block Island ferries).

 

TORNADO

Quite often when tropical systems interact with land, we see an increased risk of tornadoes.  Because this system is expected to turn right (eastward) before it makes it to Southern New England, the tornado risk is very low.

STORM SURGE

We will see a storm surge, albeit small, with this storm.

As the storm approaches, water will be pushed into the Southern New England coast.  A storm surge of 1-3feet is possible Tuesday night.   Some shore roads could be closed and some minor coastal flooding is possible.

Danny, Bristol Harbor should be protected from any significant storm surge Tuesday night, but higher than normal water levels (a foot or less) is certainly possible.

The official storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center will likely be issued by late Monday, but here is an early indication for storm surge estimates in RI/MA for Tuesday night.

WAVES / OCEAN EFFECTS

Expect large waves on the coastline of Southern New England. Waves to 35feet are possible offshore on Wednesday!

This wave action could lead to severe beach erosion here in Rhode Island and Massachusetts.  In addition, this is a very dangerous storm for the marine community.  ALL mariners should be heading back to port and securing their boats for this storm.  Also, PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROCKS AND JETTIES.  Look at the waves from a very safe distance.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

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