Another Rain and Wind Storm Late Weekend

After a relatively quite month of October, the last week has helped erase this fall season’s rainfall deficit. A beneficial 2.5″ of rain fell at TF Green Airport from Tuesday through Thursday.

And there is one more storm coming for the end of the month. This one could pack a punch, with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.

SET-UP:

A cold front is approaching from the west at the same time tropical energy from a disturbance in the southwest Caribbean will fuel a developing area of low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

TIMING: 

 

SATURDAY: Dry skies with increasing clouds late day and night.

SUNDAY:  Some showers and downpours are possible throughout the day, but severe weather isn’t expected.  As we head into the early evening and throughout the night, rain and wind will increase, along with the risk of embedded thunderstorms.

MONDAY:  The storm is a quick-mover with the rain winding down early in the morning, but gusty winds and cooler temperatures continuing.

WHAT TO EXPECT:

European 00z Friday Model Accumulated Rainfall
  • RAIN:  Highest rainfall totals will be found to the west of the storm track.  Right now, PA, NY and far western New England are slated to see the highest totals… potentially as much as 3-5″ of rain.  Locally amounts of 1″+ are likely, with isolated 3″ possible in areas that see embedded thunderstorms.
  • WINDS:  Winds will be from the southeast and strengthening through the day.  The strongest winds look to be Sunday evening and night.  The strongest wind gusts could top 50mph, mainly along the coast, Cape and Island.  In fact, some computer models show the potential for thunderstorm wind gusts over 70mph.
European Model 00z Wind Gusts
  • COASTAL FLOODING: The timing of high tide (mid-afternoon) won’t coincide with that height of the storm in RI… that should prevent any significant coastal flooding.  However some minor flooding is possible on Cape Cod during the Saturday evening high tide cycle there.  Beach erosion could also occur due to persistent on-shore (southeasterly) winds.

IMPACTS:

  • Isolated to scattered wind damage and power outages are possible, especially Sunday evening and night. Cape Cod and Nantucket currently have the highest risk for outages from this storm.

  • Localized poor drainage and street flooding is possible in heavier downpours.  Stream and river flooding is not expected at this time.

 

 

While there is confidence in heavy rain, the potential for damaging winds will depend on the intensity and track of the storm center and several ingredients coming together at the “right” time.  Please check back for updates through the weekend. 

 

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