A disturbance offshore could give us our first batch of wintry weather this weekend. The good news–it looks minor.
Saturday to Saturday night
The Potential Outcomes:
1) RI and Southeastern MA are “brushed” by the disturbance giving us a period of light snow and/or a snow/rain mix. The first, small accumulation (Coating to 2″) of the season occurs
2) The track is farther off-shore and the weekend is dry.
3) The track is closer, which could bring precipitation farther inland, leading to more snow inland and more rain mixing in across RI and SE MA
MINOR. While a small accumulation is possible, the best chance for any accumulations would be Saturday evening and night. Any snow that falls during the day will have a tough time sticking to the pavement, especially considering that temperatures will be between 35-40 in the afternoon.
Here’s a look at some of the 12/7/17 00z GFS ensemble mean accumulated snowfall (above) and the 12/7/17 00z Euro ensemble models accumulated snowfall for the weekend:
Both models show small accumulations in RI and Southeastern MA on Saturday.
Another way to look at it is the potential for a certain “amount” of snow. Here’s the European ensemble members probability of 3″ or more of snow.
This map shows a low risk (30-40%) of 3″+ snow over interior RI and Southeastern MA. It’s still a low risk, but it’s worth monitoring.
We’ll keep an eye on any changes in the forecast, and give you more specifics as we near the weekend.
Again, our early call is for a coating to 2″ of snow… mainly away from the coast.