Mid-Day Update: Storm Track Trending West = Less Snow in RI/SE MA

Data on Wednesday’s nor’easter has been streaming in through the morning, with the American computer guidance continuing to show a period of strong winds and heavy rain/snow during Wednesday Afternoon and evening.

The new data is trending west with the storm track.  That’s a warmer scenario for southeast New England and would put the rain/snow line well inland, limiting snow accumulations across much of RI and southeastern MA.

That said, we’ll continue to get data in, including the new European model, throughout the day.  The height of the storm will be Wednesday afternoon and evening, making travel difficult at that time due to snow, heavy rain and strong east winds.

Here’s how things unfold:

No big issues for the AM commute.  A few flurries and Sprinkles


Steadier rain and/or snow moves in.


Heavy rain at the coast, heavy, wet snow inland.  Difficult travel due to reduced visibility, rain-flooded streets and strong easterly wind gusts.


Precipitation tapers to lighter rain/snow showers.  Little to no additional accumulation.  Winds turn to the northwest and west.


GFS Model Accum
European Model Accums




There’s still a big difference in storm track/snow accumulations when looking at the American versus European models.  Here’s a comparison of the newest, 12z GFS model, versus the 00z European model

The latest NAM model is somewhat in between those two extremes, and looks pretty reasonable to me.

NAM Model Snow Accums








I adjusted the accumulation map westward, bringing the “mainly rain” up to just south of Fall River and along the RI coast, the 2-4″ range for Providence metro to Attleboro, Pawtucket and the West Bay and southwest to interior Washington County… The highest totals, 4-8″ will be confined to higher elevations north and west of I-295.

So, it doesn’t look like we end up with the “jackpot” for snow…. but this is still an impactful storm. Wednesday afternoon and evening will be messy, so expect difficult travel conditions, potential power outages and wind damage along with some flooding (prone basements, stream/rivers, streets, etc) from this nor’easter.

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